September 30, 2024 | Advertise with us

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The Saskatchewan election will be called tomorrow. Here’s where things currently stand.

The 30th Saskatchewan general election will be called tomorrow. Here’s what that means.

Elections Saskatchewan is responsible for administering provincial general elections and other electoral events such as by-elections, referenda, and plebiscites. In Saskatchewan, an election is called when Lieutenant Governor Russ Mirasty dissolves the legislature by dropping “the writ”, formally called the writ of election, usually at the Premier’s request.

During the campaign period, the government is dissolved, although the cabinet remains in place. The Premier will be referred to as the Leader of the Saskatchewan Party.

Currently, the incumbent Saskatchewan Party is seeking its fifth consecutive term as government. As the house currently stands, the Saskatchewan Party has 42 seats, the Saskatchewan NDP has 14, Saskatchewan United Party has 1, and there are 4 vacant or independent seats.

The Saskatchewan Party needs to defend at least 31 of its seats to remain in government, while the NDP would need to defend its existing 14 and win at least 17 other seats to form a majority government.

The Leaders

Scott Moe has been the leader of the Saskatchewan Party, and Premier, since 2018. This is his second general election as leader.

Carla Beck is the leader of the opposition New Democrats. She has been the leader of the party since 2022. This is her first general election as leader.

In this campaign, we can expect what the lines of attack and promises will be based on what has been released by the parties already. The NDP has made several campaign promises and the Saskatchewan Party has released some attacks against the opposition.

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Here’s what ridings and candidates to watch this October

The Candidates

The Saskatchewan Party has nominated all 61 candidates. There are 15 women and 46 men nominated. 27 are incumbent MLAs seeking re-election and 34 candidates will be looking to be elected for the first time.

The NDP has also nominated a full slate of 61 candidates. There are 31 women and 30 men nominated. 13 are incumbent MLAs seeking re-election, 47 are looking to be elected for the first time, and 1 former MLA is looking to win back her seat in Prince Albert.

The Battlegrounds

With an election call imminent, both parties will signal to areas of the province they are looking to defend or make pickups.

Over the last number of months, both leaders have made announcements and toured the province. In the final weeks before the election, Saskatchewan Party leader Scott Moe has primarily toured rural constituencies, making announcements in the ridings of Rosetown, Cannington, Moosomin, Rosthern, and Regina. NDP leader Carla Beck has spent most of her time in Regina and Saskatoon but has also spent a lot of time in Moose Jaw. Both leaders have made multiple stops in Prince Albert.

Looking at the 2020 results, 10 ridings were decided by less than 600 votes. These include Saskatoon Riversdale, Prince Albert Northcote, Regina Pasqua, and Saskatoon Churchill Wildwood amongst others. These ridings are likely to be close again.

A lot of focus this election will be on Prince Albert. The third largest centre in the province has two seats up for grabs and both parties are campaigning hard in this city.

Saskatoon has 14 constituencies and Regina has 12, so expect both leaders to be making a play in the biggest centers to add members to their benches. Currently, the Saskatchewan Party holds 8 of the 14 seats in Saskatoon and 5 of the 12 in Regina. There will be many close races although it will be interesting to watch Saskatoon University-Sutherland and Saskatoon Southeast with no incumbent running, and keep an eye on Regina Rochdale and the redrawn constituency of Regina University to see if the NDP can make inroads in Regina.

Finally, Moose Jaw has two seats up for grabs. The NDP are campaigning to win back Moose Jaw Wakamow for the first time since 2011, a seat with no Sask. Party incumbent.

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The Saskatchewan Chamber of Commerce is promoting its “Fueling Momentum 2024” policy platform as a key resource for the upcoming provincial election. Developed through extensive consultations with the Saskatchewan business community, this platform outlines key priorities that will influence the province's future growth.

At a time when Saskatchewan is poised to seize global opportunities—ranging from food security to energy transition—the platform emphasizes the need for a competitive business environment that attracts investment and drives innovation. Its five strategic pillars, including tax competitiveness and energy transformation, are designed to ensure Saskatchewan's leadership on the global stage.

“Fueling Momentum 2024” is positioned as a vital tool in advocating for policies that will sustain and enhance Saskatchewan’s growth and prosperity.

Read the full report here.

The issues voters will (likely) hear a lot about during the campaign

Cost of Living

Both main parties have discussed the cost of living and affordability challenges facing voters, and the issue has consistently polled as the top concern for voters. The Sask. Party is likely to run on its record of removing the carbon tax on home heating and potentially further measure to help out voters. The NDP has pledged to immediately pause the fuel tax and has promised not to raise taxes, including on businesses.

Healthcare

Healthcare is another top issue for voters according to polling. The NDP recently promised $1.1 billion for frontline healthcare to hire more doctors and keep the City Hospital emergency room open in Saskatoon for 24 hours. The Sask. Party will likely run on the Health Human Resources Action Plan to recruit and retain healthcare workers. The governing party has also opened an urgent care centre in Regina and started construction on a new hospital in Prince Albert. Look for a debate between the parties on the use of private medical services, including clinics for diagnostic tests and surgeries.

Education

Violence in schools, kids recently returning to the classroom, a year of job action from teachers, and the Parental Bill of Rights have caused education to become top of mind for voters. The NDP have promised $2 billion in new education funding over the next four years. The Saskatchewan Party is likely to run on its record of new schools and incremental spending.

The Economy

Both parties will look to show they would be stronger when it comes to the economy in Saskatchewan. The Sask. Party will point to how Saskatchewan is progressing on its 2030 Growth Plan, like the increase in provincial exports, and investments being made here at home, like BHP’s Jansen potash mine coming online in 2026, and other major projects in the province. The NDP have promised to prioritize Saskatchewan companies for government contracts. Both leaders will participate in the Greater Saskatoon Chamber of Commerce debate on October 15 where the economy, jobs, and supporting small and medium-sized businesses will be the primary focus.

Surprise Issues

Watch for housing affordability to potentially be a surprise issue in the campaign that the contenders may address. Polling presented by Abacus Data at the recent Saskatchewan Realtors Association conference showed that 70% of voters said housing affordability was a major issue for them this election, coming in just behind the overall cost of living and healthcare.

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A look at the last week of pre-writ ad spending

Last week, one week out from the election campaign, parties and affiliates spent money on Facebook and Instagram advertising to potential voters.

This spending was outside of the official campaign period and therefore does not count towards the writ period expense cap for parties and candidates.

One spending amount was far and away more than anything else and that was the NDP’s ad of Carla Beck hitting baseballs. The NDP ad has generated both earned and paid media after it was first featured on TSN during a Roughriders game, receiving attention in columns and news stories. The Saskatchewan Party has meanwhile been regularly spending money boosting introductory-style videos for their new candidates.

Here’s how ad spending has recently looked on Meta Ads (Facebook and Instagram):

• Carla Beck/Sask. NDP Caucus spent $11,117 in the past week and almost $20,000 in the past 30 days,

• The Saskatchewan Party spent $1,925 in the past week and almost $9,000 the past 30 days,

• Saskatchewan Federation of Labour spent about $7,700 this past month,

• CUPE Saskatchewan spent $7,800 the past 30 days, and

• Sask. United Party spent less than $355 the past month.

Around the province, candidates have now started running campaign-branded and funded billboards. Many incumbent MLAs, especially the Saskatchewan NDP, up until these last days had almost exclusively been running billboards and other ads using their taxpayer-funded caucus or MLA ad budgets. The shift has now been made with the election period arriving.

We can expect much more content on the airwaves starting tomorrow as both parties will be looking to get their leader and message in front of as many voters as possible.

Let us know — if you see an ad during the election, on TV or social media or anywhere else, let us know by responding to this email!

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Today is the National Day of Truth and Reconciliation

Each year, September 30 marks the National Day for Truth and Reconciliation.

The day honours the children who never returned home and Survivors of residential schools, as well as their families and communities. Public commemoration of the tragic and painful history and ongoing impacts of residential schools is a vital component of the reconciliation process. Both the National Day for Truth and Reconciliation and Orange Shirt Day take place on September 30.

Orange Shirt Day is an Indigenous-led grassroots commemorative day intended to raise awareness of the individual, family and community inter-generational impacts of residential schools, and to promote the concept of “Every Child Matters”.  The orange shirt is a symbol of the stripping away of culture, freedom and self-esteem experienced by Indigenous children over generations.

More news and info

• CSIS unveils new examples of foreign interference in Canadian politics (CBC News)

• Federal government posts $7.3B deficit between April and July (CJME News)

• Saskatoon city council approves new downtown shelter (CBC News)

• $15 minimum wage Oct. 1 in Saskatchewan (SaskToday)

2024 Election Candidate Tracker