October 28, 2024 | Advertise with us

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Scott Moe looking to lead the Saskatchewan Party to its fifth consecutive majority

Saskatchewan Party leader Scott Moe is looking to lead his party to a fifth consecutive majority government - an extremely rare occurrence in Canadian politics.

First elected in 2007, the Saskatchewan Party is already the longest-serving government in Canada and one of the longest-serving governments in Saskatchewan’s history. Polling shows that the Sask. Party could still be on track to form government, but is vulnerable to losing a fair number of seats.

A Campaign Focused on Affordability

For the first two weeks of the election campaign, Scott Moe released a video on his social media like clockwork, making a campaign promise every day, keeping the message focused on affordability. The party made several promises that included:

• A reduction in personal income taxes,

• Expanding the Graduate Retention Program and Active Families Benefit,

• Expanding glucose monitoring coverage and coverage for fertility treatments, and

• Pledged to keep the small business tax rate at 1% and keep the carbon tax off home heating.

In addition to affordability, Moe also made promises around community safety, promising a Marshals Service and adding addiction treatment spaces. The full platform can be viewed here.

Contrasting with the NDP Plan

Moe made an effort during the leader’s debate to contrast his plan with the NDP’s. Most digital ads and printed literature focus on a contrasting message. The Sask Party emphasized they had a plan for a ‘Strong Economy and a Bright Future’ while the NDP had a record of “decline, loss and closures.” At every campaign stump speech, Moe indicated that Saskatchewan voters have a very clear choice in this election and encouraged voters to compare records.

‘Number One Priority’

For the most part, Moe and the Sask. Party have focused on a message of affordability and lowering costs for families. However, on October 17th, Moe made news when he said his ‘first order of business’ if re-elected was ensuring that biological boys and biological girls do not use the same changeroom at school. Critics say that his focus on trans kids is not productive and that Moe was pulled off his preferred campaign message of affordability and targeting the NDP.

In the final week of the campaign, Moe’s closing argument was to contrast the two party’s platforms and make a choice. His focus was on affordability, the economy, and crime.

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Carla Beck looking to lead NDP to government in the closest provincial election in twenty years

The Saskatchewan New Democrats have been political outcasts in the province for nearly twenty years. But now, Carla Beck is looking to lead the party to its best showing in two decades and possibly form government.

After sixteen years in government, the NDP lost to Brad Wall’s Saskatchewan Party in 2007 winning twenty seats. In 2011 they won just nine. In 2016 they won ten seats, and in 2020 they won thirteen. Now polling shows the NDP expected to win more than twenty and within striking range of forming government.

A Campaign Focused on Health Care

The NDP spent weeks leading up to the official campaign period making a series of announcements. In the days following the debate, Beck was consistent with her message that her government would ‘get Saskatchewan out of last place’ by investing in health care and education and making life more affordable. The promises included:

• Fixing healthcare by investing $1 billion towards frontline staff and support,

• Removing the $0.15 gas tax, and remove the PST on children’s clothing,

• Investing $2 billion in education to address class size and complexity, promising new schools in multiple communities,

• Implementing a Hire Saskatchewan Plan and offer $40,000 loans for entrepreneurs,

• Scrapping the Marshal Service, hire more local police, and offer a security upgrade rebate.

During the campaign, the Saskatchewan Party attacked the NDP plan for not being fully costed. The NDP rebuked the claim, saying former deputy minister of finance Ron Styles approved the plan. The NDP’s full plan can be viewed here.

‘It’s Time for Change’

The NDP released several ads to accompany their slogan, ‘It’s time for change.’ Beck repeated her slogan in every campaign stop and stump speech. During the campaign, Beck made a direct plea to former Saskatchewan Party voters, touting the endorsements of former Sask. Party MLAs Randy Weekes, Mark Docherty and Glen Hart.

Beck closed out the campaign by visiting constituencies that NDP leaders traditionally avoided, such as Yorkton, Melville, and Last-Mountain Touchwood.

Carla Beck is looking to become the province’s first female premier and capitalize on the global pattern of change elections.

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The Saskatchewan Chamber of Commerce has launched "Fueling Momentum 2024," a policy platform for the 2024 Provincial Election. Based on extensive consultations and research, it outlines key priorities from the Saskatchewan business community to inform all political parties.

Learn more here.

A flurry of polling data shows a closer race

Several opinion research firms released extensive new polling research over the weekend. The consensus is that this election is a closer race than previous ones.

Mainstreet Research published a poll with the NDP, which had 45% support, and the Sask. Party at 41%. Other parties polled at 7%. In their research, they predict the NDP could win the popular vote, while the Saskatchewan Party would form a majority government with 32 seats to the NDP’s 29. Mainstreet was one of the most accurate pollsters in the B.C. and New Brunswick elections.

Cardinal Research also published a poll that found the incumbent Saskatchewan Party leading the NDP 49% to 43% among decided voters. They predict the Sask. Party to form the government with 37 seats compared to the opposition’s 24.

Liaison Strategies was the third firm to release data over the weekend. They did not predict a seat count but found the NDP polling at 49% compared to the Saskatchewan Party’s 46%.

These polls follow many private and public polls conducted throughout the campaign. 338 Canada is a polling aggregator that compiles polls and past results to make predictions about election outcomes across the country. Its model shows a seat range of 40-26 for the Saskatchewan Party and 35-21 for the NDP.

All of this only means the race is closer than it was a few months, even weeks ago. As the cliche goes, the only poll that matters is election day.

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Key Races to Watch Tonight

If the polls are correct and this will be a close race, there are a few key races to watch tonight.

Saskatoon Stonebridge

This constituency is currently held by incumbent Saskatchewan Party MLA and Justice Minister Bronwyn Eyre. When the boundary commission had the constituencies redrawn, Stonebridge lost all surrounding rural areas south of Saskatoon and showed a tossup if votes were redistributed. The NDP is looking to make major pickups in the cities and toppling a high-profile cabinet minister will indicate strength for a party that has never won this riding. The NDP candidate is Darcy Warrington, a local teacher.

Other close races in Saskatoon could be Saskatoon Westview, Saskatoon Chief Mistawasis and Saskatoon . Polling has constantly shown the NDP ahead in this city; however, some ridings are historically known to be safe Sask. Party seats.

Regina University

This new constituency is formerly known as Regina Gardiner Park, and Regina Dewdney before that. It has been held by cabinet minister and former Saskatchewan Roughrider Gene Makowsky since 2011. This is another urban riding with a high-profile Sask. Party candidate. As Minister of Social Services, Makowsky has been the face of a few scandals during his tenure. The NDP are also running a high-profile candidate: NDP pundit, staffer and strategist Sally Housser is looking to upset the incumbent.

Polling has shown the NDP well ahead in the capital city and the party expects to pick up multiple new seats. Other races to watch here will be Regina Rochdale, Regina Northeast, and Regina Pasqua.

Moose Jaw Wakamow

This is traditionally a competitive seat and one of the closest races in the province. There is no incumbent as Sask. Party MLA Greg Lawrence is not running again after a motorcycle injury and ongoing court cases. The Saskatchewan Party has nominated Megan Patterson, a local business instructor and former Regina candidate. The NDP has nominated Melissa Patterson, a union member and employee at Casino Moose Jaw.

Both party leaders have campaigned in Moose Jaw several times during this campaign. The Sask. Party has held this seat since 2011, and the NDP are looking to prove they can win outside of Saskatoon and Regina.

Prince Albert Carlton

Prince Albert has two constituencies, Carlton and Northcote. Northcote is a tossup and a rematch between incumbent Alana Ross of the Sask. Party, and former NDP MLA Nicole Rancourt. Carlton will be one to watch because incumbent Joe Hargrave is not running again. The Sask. Party nominated Kevin Kasun just two months ago. On the NDP side, Carolyn Brost Strom won a contested nomination over a year ago. Strom made news in the past after speaking out about the long-term care conditions of her late father.

Both party leaders have spent a lot of time in Prince Albert during this campaign and the result will come down to a better ground game at getting out the vote.

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How to follow election results live tonight

The election results will be expected shortly after polls close tonight at 8:00 pm.

You can watch the CBC election results live online, on YouTube, on the CBC app, or listen to CBC radio. Host Sam Macaig will be joined by regular panelists as well as voters.

The results will also be covered on various local radio stations across the province, including on 650 CKOM and 980 CJME.

Global News will also be covering the results. Anchors Lisa Dutton and Brendan Purdy lead coverage with analysis from Chief Political Correspondent David Akin and political analyst Ken Coates.

There will also be several online shows covering the results, including Saskatoon-based Civically Speaking, as well as a joint live stream between SUMA (our sponsor) and Cross-Border Interviews.

If you want the results directly from the source, Elections Saskatchewan will be publishing the results as they are reported on their website.

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More news and info

• Sask. candidates share superstitions, strategies ahead of election (CKOM News)

• Saskatchewan, Canada, town can't find anyone to run for mayor (UPI)

• 🏠 7 in 10 Saskatchewan voters think housing should be a top priority for elected officials. That is why Saskatchewan’s Housing Leaders have launched Secure Homes, Strong Future­ – a housing policy blueprint for Saskatchewan ahead of the 2024 provincial election. Built on grassroots consultation and expert insight, this plan provides common sense ideas that will improve affordability, unlock development, lower construction costs and build more homes faster. Click here to learn more.*

• Representation, strategy or both? Sask. election sees increase in racialized immigrant candidates (CBC Saskatchewan)

• Nova Scotians heading to the polls Nov. 26 after early election call (CBC News)

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